6% DA RISE CONFIRMED FROM JANUARY-2015 FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES : SITUATION AFTER DECLARATION OF AICPIN FOR DECEMBER 2015

The AICPIN  for the month of DECEMBER 2015 is declared by central government of India . There is no change in AICPIN and remained stationary at 253 points Thus with present scenario, the quantum of DA rise w.e.f. 1-1-2015 i.e. January 2015 is CONFIRMED AS 6%.

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Expected D.A. rise w.e.f. JULY 2015 (1-7-2015)

For details, click the following link:

http://globalemployeesforum.blogspot.in/2015/02/expected-da-rise-from-july-2015-1-7.html

EXPECTED DA RISE FROM JANUARY 2015 (1-1-2015) FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES : Situation after declaration of AICPIN for October 2014.

AICPIN for OCTOBER  2014 is declared on 28-11-2014 which remained stationary at 253 points.Thus with present scenario, the estimation of DA rise w.e.f. 1-1-2015 has been carried out with the help of  following cases:

CASE-I:  There is no change in AICPIN for next 3 months : 

         Let us assume that for next 2 months i.e. November 2014 to December 2014, the AICPIN neither rises nor declines and remains constant at 253 points for all these months. The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that, the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-II:  The AICPIN increases by ONE point every month for next 2 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-III:  The AICPIN increases by TWO points every month for next 2 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-IV:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by TWO points and ONE point    every month for next 2 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-V:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by ONE point and TWO points  every month for next 2 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VI:  The AICPIN increases  by  TWO AND THREE  points  respectively  for 2 MONTHS :

Let AICPIN increases to 255 points for November 2014 and 258 points for December 2014 .
The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VII:  The AICPIN increases by THREE points every month for next 2 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VIII:  The AICPINDEcreases by ONE point every month for next 2 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-IX:  The AICPINDEcreases by TWO points every month for next 2 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 5% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CONCLUSION:  By analysing above different situations, we can conclude that minimum DA rise may be 5% and maximum 6% w.e.f. JANUARY 2015.   MORE LIKELY RISE IN DA IS EXPECTED AS 6%

All-India CPI-IW for October, 2014 remained stationary at 253

No. 5/1/2014- CPI

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT

                                                                   LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-171004

DATED: the 28th November, 2014

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-1W) - October, 2014

The All-India CPI-1W for October, 2014 remained stationary at 253 (two hundred and fifty three). On l-month percentage change, it remained static between September, 2014 and October, 2014 when compared with the rise of 1.26 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Miscellaneous group contributing (+) 0.28 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Wheat, Wheat Atta, Arhar Dal, Potato, Green Coriander Leaves, Lemon, Guava, Tea (Readymade), Snack Saltish, Cigarette, Firewood, Primary & Secondary School Fee, Private Tuition Fee, Toilet Soap, Tailoring Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted to some extent by Coconut OIL, Onion, Apple, Banana, Cauliflower, Gowar Phali, Tomato, Sugar, Medicine (Allopathic), Petrol, etc., putting downward pressure on the index. 

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-1W stood at 4.98 per cent for October, 2014 as compared to 6.30 per cent for the previous month and 11.06 percent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 4.48 per cent against 6.46 per cent of the previous month and 15.02 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Munger Jamalpur reported an increase of 12 points followed by  Goa (11 points), Srinagar (7 points), Giridih and Sholapur (5 points each) and Coonoor (4 points). Among others, 3 points rise was observed in 10 centres, 2 points in 9 centres and 1 point in 5 centres. On the contrary, Chhindwara recorded a decrease of 5 points. Among others, 3 points fall was registered in S centres, 2 points in 5 centres and 1 point in 16 centres. Rest ofthe 21 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 37 centres are above and other 41 centres’ indices are below national average.

The next index of CPI-1W for the month of November, 2014 will be released on Wednesday, 31 December, 2014. The same will also be available on the office website www. labourbureau.gov.in.

(S.S. NEGI)

DIRECTOR

EXPECTED DA RISE FROM JANUARY 2015 (1-1-2015) FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES : Situation after declaration of AICPIN for September 2014.

AICPIN for SEPTEMBER  2014 is declared on 31-10-2014 which remained stationary at 253 points.Thus with present scenario, the estimation of DA rise w.e.f. 1-1-2015 has been carried out with the help of  following cases:

CASE-I:  There is no change in AICPIN for next 3 months : 

         Let us assume that for next 3 months i.e. October 2014 to December 2014, the AICPIN neither rises nor declines and remains constant at 253 points for all these months. The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that, the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-II:  The AICPIN increases by one point every month for next 3 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-III:  The AICPIN increases by TWO points every month for next 3months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-IV:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by TWO points, ONE point  and TWO points  every month for next 3 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-V:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by ONE point  , TWO points and ONE point every month for next 3 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VI:  The AICPIN increases  by ONE,TWO AND THREE  points  respectively  for 3 MONTHS :

Let AICPIN increases to 254 points for October 2014, 256 points for November 2014 and 259 points for December 2014 .
The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VII:  The AICPIN increases by THREE points every month for next 3 months::

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CONCLUSION:  By analysing above different situations, we can conclude that minimum DA rise may be 6% and maximum 7% w.e.f. JANUARY 2015.   However effect of  decline in AICPIN is not considered at this stage.We will discuss the same also whenever such situation arises.

EXPECTED DA RISE FROM JANUARY 2015 (1-1-2015) FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES : Situation after declaration of AICPIN for August 2014.

FOR LATEST UPDATE, PLEASE CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK
http://globalemployeesforum.blogspot.in/2014/11/expected-da-rise-from-january-2015-1-1.html 


 AICPIN for AUGUST  2014 is declared on 30-9-2014 which increases by 1   points and  pegged at 253 points.Thus with present scenario, the estimation of DA rise w.e.f. 1-1-2015 has been carried out with the help of  following cases:

CASE-I:  There is no change in AICPIN for next 4 months : 

         Let us assume that for next 4 months i.e. September 2014 to December 2014, the AICPIN neither rises nor declines and remains constant at 253 points for all these months. The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that, the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-II:  The AICPIN increases by one point every month for next 4 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-III:  The AICPIN increases by TWO points every month for next 4 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-IV:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by TWO points  and ONE point every month for next 4 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-V:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by ONE points  and TWO points every month for next 4 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VI:  The AICPIN increases  by ONE,TWO AND THREE  points  respectively  for FIRST 3 MONTHS and again by ONE   point  respectively for NEXT 1 MONTH:

Let AICPIN increases to 254 points for September 2014 and 256 points for October 2014, 259 points for November 2014 and 260 points for December 2014 .
The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VII:  The AICPIN increases by THREE points every month for next 4 months::

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 8% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CONCLUSION:  By analysing above different situations, we can conclude that minimum DA rise may be 6% and maximum 8% w.e.f. JANUARY 2015.   However effect of  decline in AICPIN is not considered at this stage.We will discuss the same also whenever such situation arises.

ALL INDIA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR AUGUST 2014 INCREASES BY ONE POINT

No.5/1/2014- CPI

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT

LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’,  SHIMLA-171004:

Dated the 31st October, 2014

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – September, 2014

The All-India CPI-IW for September, 2014 remained stationary at 253 (two hundred and fifty three). On 1-month percentage change, it remained stalic between August, 2014 and September, 2014 when compared with the rise of 0.42 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest downward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (-) 1.04 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Fish Fresh, Poultry (Chicken), Chitlies Green, Ginger, Onion, Tomato, Brinal, French Beans, Lady’s Finger, Apple, Sugar, Medicine (Allopathie), Petrol, etc. are responsible for the decrease in index.

However, this decrease was restricted to sore extent by Rice, Wheat Atta, Arhar Dal, Potato, Cauliflower, Tea (Readymade), Snack Saltish, Bidi, Cigarette, Electricity Charges, Cinema Charges, Toilet Soap, Tailoring charges. etc.. putting upward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 6.30 per cent tbr September, 2014 as compared to 6.75 per cent for the previous month and 10.70 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 6.46 per cent against 7.63 per cent of the previous month and 13.36 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Goa reported a decrease of 10 points followed by Nagpur (5 points). Among others, 4 points fall was observed in 6 centres, 3 points in 4 centres, 2 points in 9 centres and 1 point in 19 centres. On the contrary, Tripura recorded the maximum increase of 6 points followed by Lucknow & Jalpaiguri (4 points each) and Rourkela & Rangapara-Tezpur (3 points each). Among others, 2 points rise was registered in 8 centres and 1 point in 12 centres. Rest of the 13 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 37 centres are above and other 41 centres’ indices are below national average.

The next index of CPI-IW fut the month of October, 2014 will be released on Friday, 28 November. 2014.

The sanie will also be available on the office website www.labourbureau.gov.in

sd/-

(S.S.NEGI)

Director

Source: Laobur Bureau