EXPECTED D.A. RISE FROM JULY 2015 AFTER DECLARATION OF AICPIN FOR MARCH 2015

The AICPIN for MARCH 2015 is declared on 30-4-2015 which increased by one point and pegged  at 254 points.Thus with present scenario, the estimation of DA rise w.e.f. 1-7-2015 has become a complex exercise. For this purpose, we would consider folowing cases:

CASE-I:  There is no change in AICPIN for next 3 months : 

         Let us assume that for next 3 months i.e. April 2015 to June 2015, the AICPIN neither rises nor declines and remains constant at 254 points for all these months. The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that, the DA rise would be 5% w.e.f. 1-7-2015.

CASE-II:  The AICPIN increases by one point every month for next 3 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-7-2015.

CASE-III:  The AICPIN increases by TWO points every month for next 3 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-7-2015.

CASE-IV:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by TWO points  and ONE point and TWO points every month for next 3 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-7-2015.

CASE-V:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by ONE point  and TWO points and ONE point every month for next 3 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-7-2015.

CASE-VI:  The AICPIN increases  by ONE,TWO AND THREE  points  respectively  for next 3 MONTHS . 

Let AICPIN increases to  255 points for April 2015. Then AICPIN rises to 257 points  for May 2015 and 260 points for June 2015.
The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-7-2015.

CASE-VII:  The AICPIN increases by THREE points every month for next 4 months::

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2015.

CONCLUSION:  By analysing above different situatios, we can conclude that minimum DA rise may be 5% and maximum 7% w.e.f. JULY 2015.  However effect of  decline in AICPIN is not considered at this stage.We will discuss the same also whenever such situation arises.

EXPECTED DA RISE FROM JANUARY 2015 (1-1-2015) FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES : Situation after declaration of AICPIN for September 2014.

AICPIN for SEPTEMBER  2014 is declared on 31-10-2014 which remained stationary at 253 points.Thus with present scenario, the estimation of DA rise w.e.f. 1-1-2015 has been carried out with the help of  following cases:

CASE-I:  There is no change in AICPIN for next 3 months : 

         Let us assume that for next 3 months i.e. October 2014 to December 2014, the AICPIN neither rises nor declines and remains constant at 253 points for all these months. The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that, the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-II:  The AICPIN increases by one point every month for next 3 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-III:  The AICPIN increases by TWO points every month for next 3months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-IV:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by TWO points, ONE point  and TWO points  every month for next 3 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-V:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by ONE point  , TWO points and ONE point every month for next 3 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VI:  The AICPIN increases  by ONE,TWO AND THREE  points  respectively  for 3 MONTHS :

Let AICPIN increases to 254 points for October 2014, 256 points for November 2014 and 259 points for December 2014 .
The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VII:  The AICPIN increases by THREE points every month for next 3 months::

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CONCLUSION:  By analysing above different situations, we can conclude that minimum DA rise may be 6% and maximum 7% w.e.f. JANUARY 2015.   However effect of  decline in AICPIN is not considered at this stage.We will discuss the same also whenever such situation arises.