6% DA RISE CONFIRMED FROM JANUARY-2015 FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES : SITUATION AFTER DECLARATION OF AICPIN FOR DECEMBER 2015

The AICPIN  for the month of DECEMBER 2015 is declared by central government of India . There is no change in AICPIN and remained stationary at 253 points Thus with present scenario, the quantum of DA rise w.e.f. 1-1-2015 i.e. January 2015 is CONFIRMED AS 6%.

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Expected D.A. rise w.e.f. JULY 2015 (1-7-2015)

For details, click the following link:

http://globalemployeesforum.blogspot.in/2015/02/expected-da-rise-from-july-2015-1-7.html

All-India CPI-IW for October, 2014 remained stationary at 253

No. 5/1/2014- CPI

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT

                                                                   LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-171004

DATED: the 28th November, 2014

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-1W) - October, 2014

The All-India CPI-1W for October, 2014 remained stationary at 253 (two hundred and fifty three). On l-month percentage change, it remained static between September, 2014 and October, 2014 when compared with the rise of 1.26 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Miscellaneous group contributing (+) 0.28 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Wheat, Wheat Atta, Arhar Dal, Potato, Green Coriander Leaves, Lemon, Guava, Tea (Readymade), Snack Saltish, Cigarette, Firewood, Primary & Secondary School Fee, Private Tuition Fee, Toilet Soap, Tailoring Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted to some extent by Coconut OIL, Onion, Apple, Banana, Cauliflower, Gowar Phali, Tomato, Sugar, Medicine (Allopathic), Petrol, etc., putting downward pressure on the index. 

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-1W stood at 4.98 per cent for October, 2014 as compared to 6.30 per cent for the previous month and 11.06 percent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 4.48 per cent against 6.46 per cent of the previous month and 15.02 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Munger Jamalpur reported an increase of 12 points followed by  Goa (11 points), Srinagar (7 points), Giridih and Sholapur (5 points each) and Coonoor (4 points). Among others, 3 points rise was observed in 10 centres, 2 points in 9 centres and 1 point in 5 centres. On the contrary, Chhindwara recorded a decrease of 5 points. Among others, 3 points fall was registered in S centres, 2 points in 5 centres and 1 point in 16 centres. Rest ofthe 21 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 37 centres are above and other 41 centres’ indices are below national average.

The next index of CPI-1W for the month of November, 2014 will be released on Wednesday, 31 December, 2014. The same will also be available on the office website www. labourbureau.gov.in.

(S.S. NEGI)

DIRECTOR

EXPECTED DA RISE FROM JANUARY 2015 (1-1-2015) FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES : Situation after declaration of AICPIN for August 2014.

FOR LATEST UPDATE, PLEASE CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK
http://globalemployeesforum.blogspot.in/2014/11/expected-da-rise-from-january-2015-1-1.html 


 AICPIN for AUGUST  2014 is declared on 30-9-2014 which increases by 1   points and  pegged at 253 points.Thus with present scenario, the estimation of DA rise w.e.f. 1-1-2015 has been carried out with the help of  following cases:

CASE-I:  There is no change in AICPIN for next 4 months : 

         Let us assume that for next 4 months i.e. September 2014 to December 2014, the AICPIN neither rises nor declines and remains constant at 253 points for all these months. The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that, the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-II:  The AICPIN increases by one point every month for next 4 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-III:  The AICPIN increases by TWO points every month for next 4 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-IV:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by TWO points  and ONE point every month for next 4 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-V:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by ONE points  and TWO points every month for next 4 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VI:  The AICPIN increases  by ONE,TWO AND THREE  points  respectively  for FIRST 3 MONTHS and again by ONE   point  respectively for NEXT 1 MONTH:

Let AICPIN increases to 254 points for September 2014 and 256 points for October 2014, 259 points for November 2014 and 260 points for December 2014 .
The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VII:  The AICPIN increases by THREE points every month for next 4 months::

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 8% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CONCLUSION:  By analysing above different situations, we can conclude that minimum DA rise may be 6% and maximum 8% w.e.f. JANUARY 2015.   However effect of  decline in AICPIN is not considered at this stage.We will discuss the same also whenever such situation arises.

EXPECTED DA RISE FROM JANUARY 2015 (1-1-2015) FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES

        
FOR LATEST UPDATE, PLEASE CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK
http://globalemployeesforum.blogspot.in/2014/11/expected-da-rise-from-january-2015-1-1.html 


  AICPIN for JULY  2014 is declared on 30-8-2014 which increases by 6 points and  pegged at 252 points.Thus with present scenario, the estimation of DA rise w.e.f. 1-1-2015 has been carried out with the help of  following cases:

CASE-I:  There is no change in AICPIN for next 5 months : 

         Let us assume that for next 5 months i.e. August 2014 to December 2014, the AICPIN neither rises nor declines and remains constant at 252 points for all these months. The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that, the DA rise would be 5% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-II:  The AICPIN increases by one point every month for next 5 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-III:  The AICPIN increases by TWO points every month for next 5 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 8% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-IV:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by TWO points  and ONE point every month for next 5 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-V:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by ONE points  and TWO points every month for next 5 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VI:  The AICPIN increases  by ONE,TWO AND THREE  points  respectively  for FIRST 3 MONTHS and again by ONE AND TWO  points  respectively for NEXT 2 MONTHS:

Let AICPIN increases to 253 points for August 2014 and 255 points for September 2014, 258 points for October 2014, 259 points for November 2014 and 261 points for December 2014.
The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VII:  The AICPIN increases by THREE points every month for next 5 months::

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 9% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CONCLUSION:  By analysing above different situations, we can conclude that minimum DA rise may be 5% and maximum 9% w.e.f. JANUARY 2015.  However effect of  decline in AICPIN is not considered at this stage.We will discuss the same also whenever such situation arises.

EXPECTED DA RISE FROM JANUARY 2015 (1-1-2015) FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES

  FOR LATEST UPDATE, PLEASE CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK

http://globalemployeesforum.blogspot.in/2014/11/expected-da-rise-from-january-2015-1-1.html 
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      Now that 7% D.A. rise is ESTABLISHED for Central Govt.employees w.e.f. 1-7-2014 after declaration of All India Consumers price index AICPIN, the estimation for rise in D.A. w.e.f. 1-1-2015 is a topic of hot discussion.
          Presently, AICPIN for June 2014 pegged at 246 points.Thus with present scenario, the estimation of DA rise w.e.f. 1-7-2015 has become a complex exercise. For this purpose, we would consider folowing cases:

CASE-I:  There is no change in AICPIN for next 6 months : 

         Let us assume that for next 6 months i.e. July 2014 to December 2014, the AICPIN neither rises nor declines and remains constant at 246 points for all these months. The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that, the DA rise would be 3% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-II:  The AICPIN increases by one point every month for next 6 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 4% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-III:  The AICPIN increases by TWO points every month for next 6 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-IV:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by TWO points  and ONE point every month for next 6 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 5% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-V:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by ONE points  and TWO points every month for next 6 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 5% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VI:  The AICPIN increases  by ONE,TWO AND THREE  points  respectively  for FIRST 3 MONTHS and again by ONE,TWO AND THREE  points  respectively for NEXT 3 MONTHS:

Let AICPIN increases to 247 ponts for July 2014, 249 points for August 2014 and 252 points for September 2014. Then AICPIN rises to 253 points for October 2014, 255 points for November 2014 and 258 points for December 2014.
The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VII:  The AICPIN increases by THREE points every month for next 6 months::

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CONCLUSION:  By analysing above different situatios, we can conclude that minimum DA rise may be 3% and maximum 7% w.e.f. JANUARY 2015.  However effect of  decline in AICPIN is not considered at this stage.We will discuss the same also whenever such situation arises.