EXPECTED DA RISE FROM JULY-2014 FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES : SITUATION AFTER DECLARATION OF AICPIN FOR APRIL 2014

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The AICPIN  for the month of APRIL 2014 is declared by central government on 30-5-2014 . There is increase by THREE points in AICPIN and pegged at 242 points Thus with present scenario, the estimation of DA rise w.e.f. 1-7-2014 i.e. July 2014 is further reviewed with the help of following cases:

CASE-I:  There is no change in AICPIN for balance 2  months . 

         Let us assume that for balance 2 months i.e. May & June 2014, the AICPIN neither rises nor declines and remains constant at 242 points for all these months.  In this case, the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-II:  The AICPIN increases by one point every month for balance 2 months:  

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-III:  Te AICPIN increases by TWO points every month for balance 2 months:  

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-IV:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by TWO points  and ONE point   every month for balance 2 months: 

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-V:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by ONE point and TWO points   every month for balance 2 months: 

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-VI:  The AICPIN increases  by TWO and THREE points  respectively  for balance 2 months: 

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-VII:  The AICPIN increases  by THREE points every month for balance 2 months: 

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-VIII:  The AICPIN increases  by FOUR points every month for balance 2 months: 

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-IX:  The AICPIN declines  by ONE point every month for balance 2 months: 

In this case, the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-X:  The AICPIN declines  by TWO points every month for balance 3 months: 

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CONCLUSION:  By analysing above different situations, we can conclude that minimum DA rise may be6% and maximum 7% w.e.f. July 2014. The maximum possibility is7% rise.iT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO REACH 8% RISE.  For any change in  sceniaro after declaration of AICPIN for the month of May 2014, we will discuss the same also whenever such situation arises. 

All India Consumers Price Index AICPIN for April 2014 increased by THREE points and pegged at 242

No.5/1/2014-CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU

CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-171004
DATED: the 30th May, 2014

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-I W) – April, 2014

The All-India CPI-1W for April, 2014 increased by 3 points and pegged at 242 (two hundred and forty two). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 1.26 percent between March, 2014 and April, 2014 when compared with the rise of 0.89 percent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing 2.53 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Wheat, Wheat Atta, Moong Dal, Fish Fresh, Goat Meat, Milk (Buffalo), Vegetab’es & Fruits, Sugar, Electricity Charges, etc, are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted to some extent by Petrol putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-1W stood at 7.08 percent for April, 2014 as compared to 6.70 per cent for the previous month and 10.24 percent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 7.76 per cent against 7.50 per cent of the previous month and 12.39 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Angul-Talcher, Amer and Asansol recorded the maximum increase of 7 points cach followed by Ludhiana, Ernakulam, Kodarma, Giridih and Tiruchirapally (6 points each) and Nagpur, Ghaziabad, Rangapara-Tezpur. Salem and Jabalpur (5 points each). Among others, 4 points rise was registered in 12 centres, 3 points in 16 centres, 2 poInts in 24 centres and 1 point In 8 centres. On the contrary, Munger-Jamalpur reported a decline of 4 points. Indices of remaining 4 centres observed no change.

The indices of 36 centres are above and other 41 centres are below national average. The index of Munger-Jamalpur is at par with all-India index.

The next index of CPI-1W for the month of May, 2014 will be released on Monday, 30 June, 2014. The same will also be available on the office website www,labourbureau.gov.in

sd/
(S.S.NEGI)
DIRECTOR

GOOD NEWS FOR MAHARASHTRA GOVT. EMPLOYEES & PENSIONERS: MAHARASHTRA GOVT. ALSO DECLARES 10% D.A. RISE

            Maharashtra Govt. has also declared 10% rise in Dearness Allowance (DA) to its employees and pensioners  from January 2014. The DA will be included in the salary  /penson from the month of  May 2014. Decision regarding balance 4 months' difference (January to April 20114) would be notified separately.
(Click on images below to get enlarge view of circular /print)