EXPECTED DA RISE FROM JANUARY 2015 (1-1-2015) FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES

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http://globalemployeesforum.blogspot.in/2014/11/expected-da-rise-from-january-2015-1-1.html 
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      Now that 7% D.A. rise is ESTABLISHED for Central Govt.employees w.e.f. 1-7-2014 after declaration of All India Consumers price index AICPIN, the estimation for rise in D.A. w.e.f. 1-1-2015 is a topic of hot discussion.
          Presently, AICPIN for June 2014 pegged at 246 points.Thus with present scenario, the estimation of DA rise w.e.f. 1-7-2015 has become a complex exercise. For this purpose, we would consider folowing cases:

CASE-I:  There is no change in AICPIN for next 6 months : 

         Let us assume that for next 6 months i.e. July 2014 to December 2014, the AICPIN neither rises nor declines and remains constant at 246 points for all these months. The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that, the DA rise would be 3% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-II:  The AICPIN increases by one point every month for next 6 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 4% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-III:  The AICPIN increases by TWO points every month for next 6 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-IV:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by TWO points  and ONE point every month for next 6 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 5% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-V:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by ONE points  and TWO points every month for next 6 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 5% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VI:  The AICPIN increases  by ONE,TWO AND THREE  points  respectively  for FIRST 3 MONTHS and again by ONE,TWO AND THREE  points  respectively for NEXT 3 MONTHS:

Let AICPIN increases to 247 ponts for July 2014, 249 points for August 2014 and 252 points for September 2014. Then AICPIN rises to 253 points for October 2014, 255 points for November 2014 and 258 points for December 2014.
The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-VII:  The AICPIN increases by THREE points every month for next 6 months::

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CONCLUSION:  By analysing above different situatios, we can conclude that minimum DA rise may be 3% and maximum 7% w.e.f. JANUARY 2015.  However effect of  decline in AICPIN is not considered at this stage.We will discuss the same also whenever such situation arises.