EXPECTED DA RISE FROM JULY-2014 FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES : SITUATION AFTER DECLARATION OF AICPIN FOR APRIL 2014

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The AICPIN  for the month of APRIL 2014 is declared by central government on 30-5-2014 . There is increase by THREE points in AICPIN and pegged at 242 points Thus with present scenario, the estimation of DA rise w.e.f. 1-7-2014 i.e. July 2014 is further reviewed with the help of following cases:

CASE-I:  There is no change in AICPIN for balance 2  months . 

         Let us assume that for balance 2 months i.e. May & June 2014, the AICPIN neither rises nor declines and remains constant at 242 points for all these months.  In this case, the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-II:  The AICPIN increases by one point every month for balance 2 months:  

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-III:  Te AICPIN increases by TWO points every month for balance 2 months:  

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-IV:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by TWO points  and ONE point   every month for balance 2 months: 

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-V:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by ONE point and TWO points   every month for balance 2 months: 

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-VI:  The AICPIN increases  by TWO and THREE points  respectively  for balance 2 months: 

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-VII:  The AICPIN increases  by THREE points every month for balance 2 months: 

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-VIII:  The AICPIN increases  by FOUR points every month for balance 2 months: 

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-IX:  The AICPIN declines  by ONE point every month for balance 2 months: 

In this case, the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-X:  The AICPIN declines  by TWO points every month for balance 3 months: 

 In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CONCLUSION:  By analysing above different situations, we can conclude that minimum DA rise may be6% and maximum 7% w.e.f. July 2014. The maximum possibility is7% rise.iT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO REACH 8% RISE.  For any change in  sceniaro after declaration of AICPIN for the month of May 2014, we will discuss the same also whenever such situation arises.