Wednesday, 1 October 2014

EXPECTED DA RISE FROM JANUARY 2015 (1-1-2015) FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES : Situation after declaration of AICPIN for August 2014.

FOR LATEST UPDATE, PLEASE CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK
http://globalemployeesforum.blogspot.in/2014/11/expected-da-rise-from-january-2015-1-1.html 


 AICPIN for AUGUST  2014 is declared on 30-9-2014 which increases by 1   points and  pegged at 253 points.Thus with present scenario, the estimation of DA rise w.e.f. 1-1-2015 has been carried out with the help of  following cases:


CASE-I:  There is no change in AICPIN for next 4 months : 

         Let us assume that for next 4 months i.e. September 2014 to December 2014, the AICPIN neither rises nor declines and remains constant at 253 points for all these months. The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that, the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.

CASE-II:  The AICPIN increases by one point every month for next 4 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.


CASE-III:  The AICPIN increases by TWO points every month for next 4 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.


CASE-IV:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by TWO points  and ONE point every month for next 4 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.


CASE-V:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by ONE points  and TWO points every month for next 4 months: 

The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.


CASE-VI:  The AICPIN increases  by ONE,TWO AND THREE  points  respectively  for FIRST 3 MONTHS and again by ONE   point  respectively for NEXT 1 MONTH:

Let AICPIN increases to 254 points for September 2014 and 256 points for October 2014, 259 points for November 2014 and 260 points for December 2014 .
The calculation of DA rise in this case  indicates that the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.


CASE-VII:  The AICPIN increases by THREE points every month for next 4 months::

The calculation of DA rise in this case indicates that the DA rise would be 8% w.e.f. 1-1-2015.


CONCLUSION:  By analysing above different situations, we can conclude that minimum DA rise may be 6% and maximum 8% w.e.f. JANUARY 2015.   However effect of  decline in AICPIN is not considered at this stage.We will discuss the same also whenever such situation arises.

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