EXPECTED DA RISE W.E.F. 1-7-2014 FOR CENTRAL GOVT. EMPLOYEES

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           Now that 10% D.A. rise is declared by Central Govt. w.e.f. 1-1-2014 and recently order is also issued, the estimation for rise in D.A. w.e.f. 1-7-2014 is a topic of hot discussion.
          Previously, two months ago, it was expected that there may be a rise in D.A. @10% w.e.f. 1-7-2014 also. However the decline in All India consumers Price Index has put a full stop to this thought. Unlike earlier months, the AICPIN came down by 4 points for the month of December 2013 and pegged at 239 points (which was 243 points for November 2013) . The further setback was experienced due to further decline in AICPIN by two points which pegged at 237 points for the month of January 2014. Now the AICPIN is declared by Govt. on 31-3-2014 and there is one point rise for February 2014 and pegged at 238 points. Thus with present scenario, the estimation of DA rise w.e.f. 1-7-2014 has become a complex exercise. For this purpose, we would consider folowing cases:

CASE-I:  There is no change in AICPIN for balance 4 months

         Let us assume that for balance 4 months i.e. March, April, May & June 2014, the AICPIN nether rises nor declines and remains constant at 238 points for all these months. The calculation of DA rise in this case is shown below. In this case, the DA rise would be 5% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-II:  The AICPIN increases by one point every month for balance 4 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case is shown below. In this case, the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-III:  The AICPIN increases by TWO points every month for balance 4 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case is shown below. In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-IV:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by TWO points  and ONE point every month for balance 4 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case is shown below. In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-V:  The AICPIN increases alternatively by ONE points  and TWO points every month for balance 4 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case is shown below. In this case, the DA rise would be 6% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-VI:  The AICPIN increases  by ONE,TWO,THREE AND TWO points  respectively  for balance 4 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case is shown below. In this case, the DA rise would be 7% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-VII:  The AICPIN declines  by ONE point every month for balance 4 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case is shown below. In this case, the DA rise would be 5% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CASE-VIII:  The AICPIN declines  by TWO points every month for balance 4 months:

The calculation of DA rise in this case is shown below. In this case, the DA rise would be 4% w.e.f. 1-7-2014.

CONCLUSION:  By analysing above different situatios, we can conclude that minimum DA rise may be 4% and maximum 7% w.e.f. July 2014. If there is change in any sceniaro, we will discuss the same also whenever such situation arises.